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Expert opinions shed light on timely financial topics.
The warp-speed nature of the pandemic and economic crisis helps explain the equally warp speed nature of the stock market's behavior. Although the market was suggesting a V-shaped recovery, the more likely scenario is rolling "Ws".
Volatility has receded a bit recently, but stocks have made little headway due to the lack of enthusiasm surrounding a trade truce between the United States and China. Economic “surprises” have been mixed across the board and key indicators have not confirmed a resumption of strength.
U.S. stock indexes again hit record highs but sentiment and action below the surface may indicate a less bullish picture. The uptrend should continue, but risks have risen, and we believe the signal is for investors to have a neutral stance.
It’s getting later in the cycle and time to weigh the rising risks, like trade, alongside the continued rewards, such as strong economic growth. Earnings growth has been stellar and remains a tailwind but be wary of a very high expectations bar heading into 2019.
Stock markets have behaved much differently in the last two months as compared to the previous year. Increased volatility, however, doesn’t mean the end of the bull market, but it is becoming a more challenging environment.
2018 is certainly off to an interesting start. The S&P 500 ended January up about 5.6%, and by February 5th, the YTD was slightly negative. The last couple of days brought us back to the harsh reality that there actually is risk (volatility) in the stock market.
Signs are emerging that we could be entering the latter stages of this economic cycle, so what should investors do? There is no shortage of things to worry about, but the market’s Teflon coating has prevented anything from sticking.
“The market hates uncertainty” is an often-repeated stock investing adage. But it didn’t seem to be true during the first half of 2017, when the S&P 500® Index had a total return of 9.34% despite significant political and monetary policy uncertainty.
After a party is over, and the host turns on the lights, the picture often looks quite different than it did just a few minutes before. The realities of the difficulties in the U.S. political process are being recognized. This has allowed some of the sentiment froth to ease, which we believe is a healthy development.
Since the U.S. elections in November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index exploded to a new record high. Within several weeks of the election, the S&P 500 index, the technology-heavy Nasdaq index, and the small company Russell 2000 index all followed the Dow Jones lead, and achieved new all-time highs...
2nd Quarter 2020 Summary
July 23, 2020
The warp-speed nature of the pandemic and economic crisis helps explain the equally warp speed nature of the stock market's behavior. Although the market was suggesting a V-shaped recovery, the more likely scenario is rolling "Ws".
3rd Quarter 2019 Summary
October 30, 2019
Volatility has receded a bit recently, but stocks have made little headway due to the lack of enthusiasm surrounding a trade truce between the United States and China. Economic “surprises” have been mixed across the board and key indicators have not confirmed a resumption of strength.
3rd Quarter 2018 Summary
October 11, 2018
U.S. stock indexes again hit record highs but sentiment and action below the surface may indicate a less bullish picture. The uptrend should continue, but risks have risen, and we believe the signal is for investors to have a neutral stance.
2nd Quarter 2018 Summary
July 17, 2018
It’s getting later in the cycle and time to weigh the rising risks, like trade, alongside the continued rewards, such as strong economic growth. Earnings growth has been stellar and remains a tailwind but be wary of a very high expectations bar heading into 2019.
1st Quarter 2018 Summary
April 11, 2018
Stock markets have behaved much differently in the last two months as compared to the previous year. Increased volatility, however, doesn’t mean the end of the bull market, but it is becoming a more challenging environment.
Our Thoughts on Recent Market Volatility
February 6, 2018
2018 is certainly off to an interesting start. The S&P 500 ended January up about 5.6%, and by February 5th, the YTD was slightly negative. The last couple of days brought us back to the harsh reality that there actually is risk (volatility) in the stock market.
3rd Quarter 2017 Summary
October 17, 2017
Signs are emerging that we could be entering the latter stages of this economic cycle, so what should investors do? There is no shortage of things to worry about, but the market’s Teflon coating has prevented anything from sticking.
2nd Quarter 2017 Summary
July 17, 2017
“The market hates uncertainty” is an often-repeated stock investing adage. But it didn’t seem to be true during the first half of 2017, when the S&P 500® Index had a total return of 9.34% despite significant political and monetary policy uncertainty.
1st Quarter 2017 Summary
April 13, 2017
After a party is over, and the host turns on the lights, the picture often looks quite different than it did just a few minutes before. The realities of the difficulties in the U.S. political process are being recognized. This has allowed some of the sentiment froth to ease, which we believe is a healthy development.
4th Quarter 2016 Summary
January 9, 2017
Since the U.S. elections in November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index exploded to a new record high. Within several weeks of the election, the S&P 500 index, the technology-heavy Nasdaq index, and the small company Russell 2000 index all followed the Dow Jones lead, and achieved new all-time highs...